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Goulburn Valley Suns vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Goulburn Valley Suns
Goulburn Valley Suns
FT
1 – 3
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
5/22/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 9John McEwen Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Goulburn Valley Suns21%
×Draw22%
Moreland Zebras57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goulburn Valley Suns
1.15
Moreland Zebras
2.01

Moreland Zebras creates 75% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

creates per match

Goulburn Valley Suns
0.89
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

Goulburn Valley Suns
2.58
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

Goulburn Valley Suns+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goulburn Valley Suns ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Goulburn Valley Suns or draw
43%
Goulburn Valley Suns or Moreland Zebras
78%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
79%

Winning margin

Goulburn Valley Suns wins by 2+
8%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Goulburn Valley Suns 1+ goals
68%
Goulburn Valley Suns 2+ goals
32%
Goulburn Valley Suns 3+ goals
11%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
87%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
59%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Goulburn Valley Suns (draw refunded)
27%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goulburn Valley Suns at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goulburn Valley Suns attack 0.89 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Goulburn Valley Suns defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Goulburn Valley Suns scores more
21%
level
22%
Moreland Zebras scores more
57%

Moreland Zebras at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Goulburn Valley Suns 1–3 Moreland Zebras

Moreland Zebras beat Goulburn Valley Suns 3-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at John McEwen Reserve in Shepparton.