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Gottne vs Umea FF — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Gottne
Gottne
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Umea FF
Umea FF
10/14/2023Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 25Haraldsängen Fotbollsplan 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gottne33%
×Draw24%
Umea FF43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gottne
1.43
Umea FF
1.65

Umea FF creates 15% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 46 away

creates per match

Gottne
2.02
Umea FF
2.09

allows per match

Gottne
1.20
Umea FF
0.83

finishing

Gottne+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gottne ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gottne or draw
57%
Gottne or Umea FF
76%
Draw or Umea FF
67%

Winning margin

Gottne wins by 2+
15%
Umea FF wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gottne 1+ goals
76%
Gottne 2+ goals
42%
Gottne 3+ goals
17%
Umea FF 1+ goals
81%
Umea FF 2+ goals
49%
Umea FF 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gottne (draw refunded)
44%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gottne at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gottne attack 2.02 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.43

Umea FF attack 2.09 + Gottne defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gottne scores more
33%
level
24%
Umea FF scores more
43%

Umea FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gottne vs Umea FF

Umea FF beat Gottne 2-1 in Division 2 - Norrland on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Haraldsängen Fotbollsplan 1 in Mellansel.