Gottne 0–6 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

Gottne

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

IFK Norrkoping

10/8/2020

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundHaraldsängen Fotbollsplan 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gottne31%

×Draw19%

IFK Norrkoping50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GottneExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

2.59

Gottne

2.01

IFK Norrkoping

2.59

IFK Norrkoping creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

2.67

creates per match

2.85

2.33

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Gottne

2.67

IFK Norrkoping

2.85

allows per match

Gottne

2.33

IFK Norrkoping

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gottne+0.00on par

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gottne ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Gottne or draw

50%

Gottne or IFK Norrkoping

81%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

69%

Winning margin

Gottne wins by 2+

16%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Gottne 1+ goals

87%

Gottne 2+ goals

59%

Gottne 3+ goals

32%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

92%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

73%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Gottne (draw refunded)

38%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gottne at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gottne attack 2.67 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 2.01

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.85 + Gottne defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gottne scores more

31%

level

19%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

50%

IFK Norrkoping at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff