Gottne 3–1 Hudiksvall: Result & Stats

Gottne

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hudiksvall

M. Abubakari 79'

A. Larsson 36'

J. Mawira 8'

D. Eliasson 14'

6/26/2019

Svenska Cupen · 1st RoundHaraldsängen Fotbollsplan 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gottne43%

×Draw21%

Hudiksvall37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GottneExpected goals in this matchHudiksvall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.92

Gottne

2.08

Hudiksvall

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.67

creates per match

1.50

2.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Gottne

2.67

Hudiksvall

1.50

allows per match

Gottne

2.33

Hudiksvall

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gottne+0.00on par

Hudiksvall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gottne ↓

Hudiksvall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Gottne or draw

63%

Gottne or Hudiksvall

79%

Draw or Hudiksvall

57%

Winning margin

Gottne wins by 2+

24%

Hudiksvall wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gottne 1+ goals

87%

Gottne 2+ goals

61%

Gottne 3+ goals

34%

Hudiksvall 1+ goals

85%

Hudiksvall 2+ goals

57%

Hudiksvall 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Gottne (draw refunded)

54%

Hudiksvall (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gottne at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Hudiksvall away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gottne attack 2.67 + Hudiksvall defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Hudiksvall attack 1.50 + Gottne defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gottne scores more

43%

level

21%

Hudiksvall scores more

37%

Gottne at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gottne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Mawira

14'

D. Eliasson

36'

A. Larsson

69'

J. Friman← A. Larsson

72'

A. Persson← P. Hedlund

79'

M. Abubakari

81'

P. Lööf← T. Sandström

81'

S. Bergman Bestdahl← C. Lindberg

83'

J. Eriksson← M. Abubakari

Gottne

Hudiksvall

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Abubakari

Harmon

Barasa

⚽

▼

Larsson

Johnson

Manager: R. Dannberg

69'▲J. Friman←▼A. Larsson

83'▲J. Eriksson←▼M. Abubakari

Gottne substitutes

FrimanErikssonWikmanErikssonMansourChawila

Manager: B. Dahlin

72'▲A. Persson←▼P. Hedlund

81'▲P. Lööf←▼T. Sandström

81'▲S. Bergman Bestdahl←▼C. Lindberg

Hudiksvall substitutes

PerssonLööfBestdahlAndersson