Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Göteborg W vs Vittsjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Göteborg W
Göteborg W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vittsjö W
Vittsjö W
11/15/2020DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 22Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Göteborg W68%
×Draw19%
Vittsjö W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göteborg W
2.18
Vittsjö W
0.81

Göteborg W creates 169% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 80 away

creates per match

Göteborg W
2.86
Vittsjö W
1.26

allows per match

Göteborg W
0.36
Vittsjö W
1.50

finishing

Göteborg W+0.00on par
Vittsjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göteborg W ↓

Vittsjö W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Göteborg W or draw
87%
Göteborg W or Vittsjö W
81%
Draw or Vittsjö W
32%

Winning margin

Göteborg W wins by 2+
44%
Vittsjö W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Göteborg W 1+ goals
89%
Göteborg W 2+ goals
64%
Göteborg W 3+ goals
37%
Vittsjö W 1+ goals
56%
Vittsjö W 2+ goals
19%
Vittsjö W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Göteborg W (draw refunded)
84%
Vittsjö W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göteborg W at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.36 · 22 matches

Vittsjö W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göteborg W attack 2.86 + Vittsjö W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.18

Vittsjö W attack 1.26 + Göteborg W defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Göteborg W scores more
68%
level
19%
Vittsjö W scores more
13%

Göteborg W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Göteborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Damallsvenskan: Göteborg W 3–1 Vittsjö W

Göteborg W beat Vittsjö W 3-1 in Damallsvenskan on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.