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Göteborg W vs KIF Örebro W — Elitettan 2021

Göteborg W
Göteborg W
Preview
11:00
KIF Örebro W
KIF Örebro W
8/8/2026ElitettanElitettan · Round 13Gamla Ullevi
Big match
45%
KIF Örebro W
model favours
34%22%45%

Göteborg W have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Göteborg W34%
×Draw22%
KIF Örebro W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göteborg W
1.71
KIF Örebro W
1.99

KIF Örebro W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

Göteborg W
2.20
KIF Örebro W
2.58

allows per match

Göteborg W
1.40
KIF Örebro W
1.21

finishing

Göteborg W+0.00on par
KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göteborg W ↓

KIF Örebro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Göteborg W or draw
55%
Göteborg W or KIF Örebro W
78%
Draw or KIF Örebro W
66%

Winning margin

Göteborg W wins by 2+
17%
KIF Örebro W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Göteborg W 1+ goals
82%
Göteborg W 2+ goals
51%
Göteborg W 3+ goals
24%
KIF Örebro W 1+ goals
86%
KIF Örebro W 2+ goals
59%
KIF Örebro W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Göteborg W (draw refunded)
43%
KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göteborg W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göteborg W attack 2.20 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

KIF Örebro W attack 2.58 + Göteborg W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Göteborg W scores more
34%
level
22%
KIF Örebro W scores more
45%

KIF Örebro W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KIF Örebro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Göteborg W 3 vs KIF Örebro W 4
  • KIF Örebro W win just 38% against the top half (vs 93% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDWWW
W
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Göteborg W face KIF Örebro W (Elitettan)

Elitettan returns with Göteborg W hosting KIF Örebro W. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Göteborg W host KIF Örebro W at Gamla Ullevi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.