Göteborg W 1–1 KIF Örebro W: Result & Stats

Göteborg W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

KIF Örebro W

P. Hammarlund 29'

C. Farquharson 79'

10/17/2020

Damallsvenskan · Round 19Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Göteborg W76%

×Draw16%

KIF Örebro W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Göteborg WExpected goals in this matchKIF Örebro W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.63

Göteborg W

2.38

KIF Örebro W

0.63

Göteborg W creates 278% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 62 away

2.86

creates per match

0.90

0.36

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Göteborg W

2.86

KIF Örebro W

0.90

allows per match

Göteborg W

0.36

KIF Örebro W

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göteborg W+0.00on par

KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göteborg W ↓

KIF Örebro W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Göteborg W or draw

92%

Göteborg W or KIF Örebro W

84%

Draw or KIF Örebro W

24%

Winning margin

Göteborg W wins by 2+

53%

KIF Örebro W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Göteborg W 1+ goals

91%

Göteborg W 2+ goals

68%

Göteborg W 3+ goals

42%

KIF Örebro W 1+ goals

47%

KIF Örebro W 2+ goals

13%

KIF Örebro W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Göteborg W (draw refunded)

90%

KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göteborg W at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.36 · 22 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göteborg W attack 2.86 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.38

KIF Örebro W attack 0.90 + Göteborg W defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Göteborg W scores more

76%

level

16%

KIF Örebro W scores more

8%

Göteborg W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Göteborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

P. Hammarlund

31'

E. Ostlund

58'

H. Wijk← E. Koivisto

58'

R. Blomqvist← S. Blackstenius

64'

V. Bøe Risa← F. Angeldahl

75'

C. Farquharson← F. Skogman

77'

E. Kullberg← J. Olme

79'

C. Farquharson

Göteborg

KIF

1

7

4

2

12

6

▼

5

21

8

22

11

13

19

5

▼

14

12

6

9

16

▼

Angeldahl

15

▼

Olme

11

⚽

Hammarlun

7

▼

Blacksten

Manager: M. Gren

58'▲H. Wijk←▼E. Koivisto

58'▲R. Blomqvist←▼S. Blackstenius

64'▲V. Bøe Risa←▼F. Angeldahl

77'▲E. Kullberg←▼J. Olme

Göteborg W substitutes

20Wijk21Blomqvist8Risa4Kullberg17Csiki22Ijeh30Hall

Manager: S. Ärnsved

75'▲C. Farquharson←▼F. Skogman

KIF Örebro W substitutes

14Farquharson17Bengtsson19Pelgander94Paulsson-Febo20Lindbäck9Lilja

Damallsvenskan: Göteborg W 1–1 KIF Örebro W

Göteborg W and KIF Örebro W drew 1-1 in Damallsvenskan on October 17, 2020.

Goals: P. Hammarlund (29'), C. Farquharson (79').

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.

Göteborg W vs KIF Örebro W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Damallsvenskan: Göteborg W 1–1 KIF Örebro W