Gossau 1–5 Winterthur II: Result & Stats

Gossau

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Winterthur II

3/5/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Sportanlage Buechenwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Gossau38%

×Draw23%

Winterthur II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GossauExpected goals in this matchWinterthur II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.71

Gossau

1.68

Winterthur II

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

1.86

creates per match

1.58

1.84

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Gossau

1.86

Winterthur II

1.58

allows per match

Gossau

1.84

Winterthur II

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gossau+0.00on par

Winterthur II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gossau ↓

Winterthur II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Gossau or draw

61%

Gossau or Winterthur II

77%

Draw or Winterthur II

62%

Winning margin

Gossau wins by 2+

19%

Winterthur II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gossau 1+ goals

81%

Gossau 2+ goals

50%

Gossau 3+ goals

24%

Winterthur II 1+ goals

82%

Winterthur II 2+ goals

51%

Winterthur II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gossau (draw refunded)

49%

Winterthur II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gossau at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.84 · 57 matches

Winterthur II away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gossau attack 1.86 + Winterthur II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.68

Winterthur II attack 1.58 + Gossau defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gossau scores more

38%

level

23%

Winterthur II scores more

39%

Winterthur II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Winterthur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff