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Gossau vs Grasshopper II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Gossau
Gossau
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Grasshopper II
Grasshopper II
8/5/20231. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Sportanlage Buechenwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gossau42%
×Draw22%
Grasshopper II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gossau
1.85
Grasshopper II
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gossau
1.86
Grasshopper II
1.57

allows per match

Gossau
1.84
Grasshopper II
1.83

finishing

Gossau+0.00on par
Grasshopper II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gossau ↓

Grasshopper II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gossau or draw
64%
Gossau or Grasshopper II
78%
Draw or Grasshopper II
58%

Winning margin

Gossau wins by 2+
22%
Grasshopper II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gossau 1+ goals
84%
Gossau 2+ goals
55%
Gossau 3+ goals
28%
Grasshopper II 1+ goals
82%
Grasshopper II 2+ goals
51%
Grasshopper II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gossau (draw refunded)
54%
Grasshopper II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gossau at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.84 · 57 matches

Grasshopper II away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gossau attack 1.86 + Grasshopper II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Grasshopper II attack 1.57 + Gossau defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gossau scores more
42%
level
22%
Grasshopper II scores more
36%

Gossau at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gossau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Gossau 3–3 Grasshopper II

Gossau and Grasshopper II drew 3-3 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Buechenwald in Gossau.