Gossau 1–1 Freienbach: Result & Stats

Gossau

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Freienbach

4/29/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Sportanlage Buechenwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Gossau46%

×Draw22%

Freienbach32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GossauExpected goals in this matchFreienbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.56

Gossau

1.90

Freienbach

1.56

Gossau creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 73 away

1.86

creates per match

1.27

1.84

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Gossau

1.86

Freienbach

1.27

allows per match

Gossau

1.84

Freienbach

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gossau+0.00on par

Freienbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gossau ↓

Freienbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gossau or draw

68%

Gossau or Freienbach

78%

Draw or Freienbach

54%

Winning margin

Gossau wins by 2+

25%

Freienbach wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gossau 1+ goals

85%

Gossau 2+ goals

56%

Gossau 3+ goals

29%

Freienbach 1+ goals

79%

Freienbach 2+ goals

46%

Freienbach 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Gossau (draw refunded)

59%

Freienbach (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gossau at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.84 · 57 matches

Freienbach away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gossau attack 1.86 + Freienbach defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Freienbach attack 1.27 + Gossau defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gossau scores more

46%

level

22%

Freienbach scores more

32%

Gossau at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gossau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff