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Gosnells City vs Subiaco — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Gosnells City
Gosnells City
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Subiaco
Subiaco
6/4/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 6Walter Padbury Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gosnells City32%
×Draw22%
Subiaco46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gosnells City
1.65
Subiaco
1.99

Subiaco creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gosnells City
1.23
Subiaco
1.57

allows per match

Gosnells City
2.41
Subiaco
2.07

finishing

Gosnells City+0.00on par
Subiaco+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gosnells City ↓

Subiaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gosnells City or draw
54%
Gosnells City or Subiaco
78%
Draw or Subiaco
68%

Winning margin

Gosnells City wins by 2+
16%
Subiaco wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Gosnells City 1+ goals
81%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
49%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
23%
Subiaco 1+ goals
86%
Subiaco 2+ goals
59%
Subiaco 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Gosnells City (draw refunded)
41%
Subiaco (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gosnells City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

Subiaco away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gosnells City attack 1.23 + Subiaco defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Subiaco attack 1.57 + Gosnells City defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gosnells City scores more
32%
level
22%
Subiaco scores more
46%

Subiaco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Subiaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Gosnells City 1–4 Subiaco

Subiaco beat Gosnells City 4-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on June 4, 2025.

The match was played at Walter Padbury Reserve A in Thornlie.