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Gosnells City vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Gosnells City
Gosnells City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
6/8/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 10Walter Padbury Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gosnells City44%
×Draw19%
ECU Joondalup36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gosnells City
2.44
ECU Joondalup
2.21

Gosnells City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gosnells City
1.23
ECU Joondalup
2.00

allows per match

Gosnells City
2.41
ECU Joondalup
3.64

finishing

Gosnells City+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gosnells City ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Gosnells City or draw
64%
Gosnells City or ECU Joondalup
81%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
56%

Winning margin

Gosnells City wins by 2+
26%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gosnells City 1+ goals
91%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
70%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
43%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
89%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
65%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Gosnells City (draw refunded)
55%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gosnells City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gosnells City attack 1.23 + ECU Joondalup defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.44

ECU Joondalup attack 2.00 + Gosnells City defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gosnells City scores more
44%
level
19%
ECU Joondalup scores more
36%

Gosnells City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gosnells City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Gosnells City 2–1 ECU Joondalup

Gosnells City beat ECU Joondalup 2-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Walter Padbury Reserve A in Thornlie.