Gosnells City 1–2 Dianella White Eagle

Gosnells City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dianella White Eagle

8/27/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 20Walter Padbury Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gosnells City23%

×Draw21%

Dianella White Eagle57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gosnells CityExpected goals in this matchDianella White Eagle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.12

Gosnells City

1.27

Dianella White Eagle

2.12

Dianella White Eagle creates 67% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.23

creates per match

1.82

2.41

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Gosnells City

1.23

Dianella White Eagle

1.82

allows per match

Gosnells City

2.41

Dianella White Eagle

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gosnells City+0.00on par

Dianella White Eagle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gosnells City ↓

Dianella White Eagle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Gosnells City or draw

43%

Gosnells City or Dianella White Eagle

79%

Draw or Dianella White Eagle

77%

Winning margin

Gosnells City wins by 2+

9%

Dianella White Eagle wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Gosnells City 1+ goals

72%

Gosnells City 2+ goals

36%

Gosnells City 3+ goals

14%

Dianella White Eagle 1+ goals

88%

Dianella White Eagle 2+ goals

62%

Dianella White Eagle 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Gosnells City (draw refunded)

28%

Dianella White Eagle (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gosnells City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

Dianella White Eagle away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gosnells City attack 1.23 + Dianella White Eagle defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dianella White Eagle attack 1.82 + Gosnells City defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gosnells City scores more

23%

level

21%

Dianella White Eagle scores more

57%

Dianella White Eagle at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dianella White Eagle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff