Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
FT
2 – 0
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
10/15/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 9Sportski centar Jure Bakotić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica60%
×Draw22%
Urania Baška Voda18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.87
Urania Baška Voda
0.92

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica creates 103% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 57 away

creates per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.62
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.02
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or draw
82%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or Urania Baška Voda
78%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
40%

Winning margin

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
35%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
85%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
56%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
29%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
60%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
23%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
77%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.62 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.87

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
60%
level
22%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
18%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2 – 0 Urania Baška Voda

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica beat Urania Baška Voda 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jure Bakotić in Kaštel Gomilica.