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GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
FT
1 – 0
RNK Split
RNK Split
8/27/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 1Sportski centar Jure Bakotić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica49%
×Draw25%
RNK Split26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.63
RNK Split
1.13

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica creates 44% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 57 away

creates per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.62
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.02
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or draw
74%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or RNK Split
75%
Draw or RNK Split
51%

Winning margin

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
26%
RNK Split wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
80%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
48%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
22%
RNK Split 1+ goals
68%
RNK Split 2+ goals
31%
RNK Split 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
65%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.62 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

RNK Split attack 1.23 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
49%
level
25%
RNK Split scores more
26%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica vs RNK Split

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica beat RNK Split 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jure Bakotić in Kaštel Gomilica.