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GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
FT
2 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
9/23/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 6Sportski centar Jure Bakotić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica69%
×Draw18%
HNK Hajduk Split II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
2.34
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.91

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica creates 157% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.62
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica
1.02
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or draw
87%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or HNK Hajduk Split II
82%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
31%

Winning margin

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+
46%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals
90%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals
67%
GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals
41%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
60%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
23%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)
84%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.62 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.34

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more
69%
level
18%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
13%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2 – 1 HNK Hajduk Split II

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica beat HNK Hajduk Split II 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jure Bakotić in Kaštel Gomilica.