GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2–0 GOŠK Dubrovnik

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

GOŠK Dubrovnik

11/16/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 13Sportski centar Jure Bakotić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica55%

×Draw24%

GOŠK Dubrovnik21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK Kaštel GomilicaExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Dubrovnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.94

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.71

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.94

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica creates 82% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 102 away

1.62

creates per match

0.86

1.02

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.62

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.86

allows per match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica

1.02

GOŠK Dubrovnik

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica+0.00on par

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or draw

79%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica or GOŠK Dubrovnik

76%

Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik

45%

Winning margin

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica wins by 2+

31%

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 1+ goals

82%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 2+ goals

51%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 3+ goals

24%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals

61%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals

24%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica (draw refunded)

73%

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica attack 1.62 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica scores more

55%

level

24%

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more

21%

GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff