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GOŠK Gabela vs Stupčanica Olovo — 1st League - FBiH 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
A. Prskalo 65'
M. Varesanovic 83', 9'
4/26/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlovic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

GOŠK Gabela49%
×Draw26%
Stupčanica Olovo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
1.52
Stupčanica Olovo
1.02

GOŠK Gabela creates 49% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 57 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.02
Stupčanica Olovo
1.23

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.80
Stupčanica Olovo
1.02

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
75%
GOŠK Gabela or Stupčanica Olovo
74%
Draw or Stupčanica Olovo
51%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
25%
Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
78%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
45%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
20%
Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
64%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
27%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
66%
Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.80 · 65 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 2.02 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + GOŠK Gabela defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
49%
level
26%
Stupčanica Olovo scores more
25%

GOŠK Gabela at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. Varesanovic
65'
A. Prskalo
83'
M. Varesanovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Gabela vs Stupčanica Olovo

Stupčanica Olovo beat GOŠK Gabela 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on April 26, 2026.

Goals: M. Varesanovic (9', 83'), A. Prskalo (65').

The match was played at Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlovic in Gabela.