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GOŠK Gabela vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
3 – 1
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
8/18/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 2Stadion Podavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

GOŠK Gabela75%
×Draw16%
Slaven Živinice9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
2.40
Slaven Živinice
0.70

GOŠK Gabela creates 243% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 23 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Slaven Živinice
0.57

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.83
Slaven Živinice
2.78

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
91%
GOŠK Gabela or Slaven Živinice
84%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
25%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
52%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
91%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
69%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
42%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
50%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
16%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
89%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 2.03 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.40

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + GOŠK Gabela defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
75%
level
16%
Slaven Živinice scores more
9%

GOŠK Gabela at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: GOŠK Gabela 3–1 Slaven Živinice

GOŠK Gabela beat Slaven Živinice 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Podavala in Gabela.