GOŠK Gabela 0–0 Siroki Brijeg: Result & Stats

GOŠK Gabela

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Siroki Brijeg

12/3/2023

Premijer Liga · Round 16Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GOŠK Gabela29%

×Draw26%

Siroki Brijeg45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK GabelaExpected goals in this matchSiroki Brijeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.50

GOŠK Gabela

1.14

Siroki Brijeg

1.50

Siroki Brijeg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

0.84

creates per match

0.97

2.03

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela

0.84

Siroki Brijeg

0.97

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela

2.03

Siroki Brijeg

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Siroki Brijeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw

55%

GOŠK Gabela or Siroki Brijeg

74%

Draw or Siroki Brijeg

71%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

11%

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

68%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

32%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

11%

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals

78%

Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals

44%

Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

39%

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 0.84, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

Siroki Brijeg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.43 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 0.84 + Siroki Brijeg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Siroki Brijeg attack 0.97 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more

29%

level

26%

Siroki Brijeg scores more

45%

Siroki Brijeg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Siroki Brijeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff