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GOŠK Gabela vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
4/30/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 24Stadion Podavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

GOŠK Gabela68%
×Draw19%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
2.12
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.78

GOŠK Gabela creates 172% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.73

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.83
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
2.20

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
87%
GOŠK Gabela or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
81%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
32%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
44%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
88%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
62%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
35%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
54%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
18%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
84%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 2.03 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.12

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + GOŠK Gabela defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
68%
level
19%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
13%

GOŠK Gabela at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: GOŠK Gabela 1–1 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

GOŠK Gabela and Mladost Doboj Kakanj drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Podavala in Gabela.