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GOŠK Gabela vs Gradina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
6 – 1
Gradina
Gradina
10/3/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 8Stadion Podavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

GOŠK Gabela60%
×Draw23%
Gradina17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
1.78
Gradina
0.84

GOŠK Gabela creates 112% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 59 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Gradina
0.85

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.83
Gradina
1.54

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Gradina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Gradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
83%
GOŠK Gabela or Gradina
77%
Draw or Gradina
40%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
34%
Gradina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
83%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
53%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
26%
Gradina 1+ goals
57%
Gradina 2+ goals
21%
Gradina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
77%
Gradina (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Gradina away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 2.03 + Gradina defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.78

Gradina attack 0.85 + GOŠK Gabela defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
60%
level
23%
Gradina scores more
17%

GOŠK Gabela at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: GOŠK Gabela 6–1 Gradina

GOŠK Gabela beat Gradina 6-1 in 1st League - FBiH on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Podavala in Gabela.