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GOŠK Dubrovnik vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
FT
4 – 1
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
5/8/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 28Gradski stadion Lapad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik60%
×Draw23%
Zmaj Makarska17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.77
Zmaj Makarska
0.80

GOŠK Dubrovnik creates 121% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 78 away

creates per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.33
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.97
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Dubrovnik ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

GOŠK Dubrovnik or draw
83%
GOŠK Dubrovnik or Zmaj Makarska
77%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
40%

Winning margin

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
35%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
83%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
53%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
26%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
55%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
19%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
78%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Dubrovnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.97 · 102 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 1.33 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
60%
level
23%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
17%

GOŠK Dubrovnik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "GOŠK Dubrovnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Dubrovnik vs Zmaj Makarska

GOŠK Dubrovnik beat Zmaj Makarska 4-1 in Third NL - Jug on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Lapad in Dubrovnik.