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GOŠK Dubrovnik vs Vodice — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
FT
1 – 0
Vodice
Vodice
11/4/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 12Gradski stadion Lapad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik56%
×Draw24%
Vodice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.75
Vodice
0.95

GOŠK Dubrovnik creates 84% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.33
Vodice
0.92

allows per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.97
Vodice
2.17

finishing

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par
Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Dubrovnik ↓

Vodice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

GOŠK Dubrovnik or draw
80%
GOŠK Dubrovnik or Vodice
76%
Draw or Vodice
44%

Winning margin

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
31%
Vodice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
83%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
52%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
25%
Vodice 1+ goals
61%
Vodice 2+ goals
25%
Vodice 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
73%
Vodice (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Dubrovnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.97 · 102 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 1.33 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vodice attack 0.92 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
56%
level
24%
Vodice scores more
20%

GOŠK Dubrovnik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "GOŠK Dubrovnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: GOŠK Dubrovnik 1–0 Vodice

GOŠK Dubrovnik beat Vodice 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Lapad in Dubrovnik.