GOŠK Dubrovnik 3–0 Otok: Result & Stats

GOŠK Dubrovnik

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Otok

3/26/2022

Third NL - Jug · South - 24Gradski stadion Lapad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik62%

×Draw21%

Otok17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK DubrovnikExpected goals in this matchOtok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.93

GOŠK Dubrovnik

2.02

Otok

0.93

GOŠK Dubrovnik creates 117% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 33 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

0.97

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik

1.33

Otok

0.88

allows per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.97

Otok

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Otok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Dubrovnik ↓

Otok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

GOŠK Dubrovnik or draw

83%

GOŠK Dubrovnik or Otok

79%

Draw or Otok

38%

Winning margin

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+

38%

Otok wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals

87%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals

60%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals

33%

Otok 1+ goals

61%

Otok 2+ goals

24%

Otok 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)

79%

Otok (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Dubrovnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.97 · 102 matches

Otok away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 1.33 + Otok defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.02

Otok attack 0.88 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more

62%

level

21%

Otok scores more

17%

GOŠK Dubrovnik at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "GOŠK Dubrovnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff