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GOŠK Dubrovnik vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
FT
1 – 0
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
4/27/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 26Gradski stadion Lapad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik67%
×Draw19%
HNK Hajduk Split II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Dubrovnik
2.20
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.89

GOŠK Dubrovnik creates 147% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.33
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.97
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Dubrovnik ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

GOŠK Dubrovnik or draw
86%
GOŠK Dubrovnik or HNK Hajduk Split II
81%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
33%

Winning margin

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
43%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
89%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
64%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
37%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
59%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
22%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
83%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Dubrovnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.97 · 102 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 1.33 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.20

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
67%
level
19%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
14%

GOŠK Dubrovnik at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "GOŠK Dubrovnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Dubrovnik vs HNK Hajduk Split II

GOŠK Dubrovnik beat HNK Hajduk Split II 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Lapad in Dubrovnik.