Gorodeya 1–3 Torpedo Zhodino: Result & Stats

Gorodeya

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Torpedo Zhodino

D. Ignatenko 76'

K. Premudrov 86', 36'

Y. Habovda 10'

9/19/2020

Premier League · Round 24Stadyen Haradzeya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gorodeya32%

×Draw28%

Torpedo Zhodino40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GorodeyaExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Zhodino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.22

Gorodeya

1.06

Torpedo Zhodino

1.22

Torpedo Zhodino creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 113 away

1.15

creates per match

1.29

1.15

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Gorodeya

1.15

Torpedo Zhodino

1.29

allows per match

Gorodeya

1.15

Torpedo Zhodino

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gorodeya+0.00on par

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorodeya ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gorodeya or draw

60%

Gorodeya or Torpedo Zhodino

72%

Draw or Torpedo Zhodino

68%

Winning margin

Gorodeya wins by 2+

12%

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gorodeya 1+ goals

65%

Gorodeya 2+ goals

29%

Gorodeya 3+ goals

9%

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

70%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

34%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gorodeya (draw refunded)

44%

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorodeya at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.98 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorodeya attack 1.15 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.29 + Gorodeya defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gorodeya scores more

32%

level

28%

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

40%

Torpedo Zhodino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

12'

21'

36'

40'

57'

59'

Artem Solovey← M. Shibun

68'

A. Bulychev← D. Yaskovich

68'

M. Afanasjev← Lipe Veloso

70'

Mikhail Afanasjev

73'

Moresche← Y. Habovda

75'

S. Arkhipov← M. Smirnov

76'

D. Ignatenko

81'

Sergei Pushnyakov

86'

K. Premudrov

89'

A. Aussi← Gabriel Ramos

Gorodeya4-4-2

Torpedo4-2-3-1

90

Antilevsk

20

▼

Veloso

8

▼

Ramos

25

Pavlyukov

55

Kaplenko

6

⚽2

Premudrov

7

⚽

▼

88

3

21

1

16

7

▼

Smirnov

30

▼

Yaskovich

72

Poznyak

3

⚽

Ignatenko

28

Sajčić

19

▼

35

17

20

11

Manager: O. Radushko

59'▲Artem Solovey←▼M. Shibun

68'▲A. Bulychev←▼D. Yaskovich

75'▲S. Arkhipov←▼M. Smirnov

Gorodeya substitutes

15Solovey99Bulychev94Arkhipov4Shestilovskiy10Senkevich41Pashevich95Makarov

Manager: Y. Puntus

68'▲M. Afanasjev←▼Lipe Veloso

73'▲Moresche←▼Y. Habovda

89'▲A. Aussi←▼Gabriel Ramos

Torpedo Zhodino substitutes

77Afanasjev17Moresche44Aussi16Aliseyko18Shcherbo92Kozlov99Zhurnevich

Match Recap: Gorodeya vs Torpedo Zhodino

Torpedo Zhodino beat Gorodeya 3-1 in Premier League on September 19, 2020.

Goals: Y. Habovda (10'), K. Premudrov (36', 86'), D. Ignatenko (76').

The match was played at Stadyen Haradzeya in Haradzeya.

Gorodeya vs Torpedo Zhodino — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gorodeya vs Torpedo Zhodino