Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gorodeya vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

Gorodeya
Gorodeya
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
8/22/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Stadyen Haradzeya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gorodeya29%
×Draw26%
Ruh Brest45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gorodeya
1.15
Ruh Brest
1.49

Ruh Brest creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

creates per match

Gorodeya
1.13
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

Gorodeya
1.22
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

Gorodeya+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorodeya ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gorodeya or draw
55%
Gorodeya or Ruh Brest
74%
Draw or Ruh Brest
71%

Winning margin

Gorodeya wins by 2+
12%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gorodeya 1+ goals
68%
Gorodeya 2+ goals
32%
Gorodeya 3+ goals
11%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
77%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
44%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gorodeya (draw refunded)
39%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorodeya at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorodeya attack 1.13 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + Gorodeya defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gorodeya scores more
29%
level
26%
Ruh Brest scores more
45%

Ruh Brest at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gorodeya vs Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat Gorodeya 3-1 in Premier League on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradzeya in Haradzeya.