Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gorodeya vs FC Slutsk — Premier League 2018

Gorodeya
Gorodeya
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
K. Pavlyuchek 56'
S. Arkhipov 51', 34'
6/12/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadyen Haradzeya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Gorodeya45%
×Draw27%
FC Slutsk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gorodeya
1.35
FC Slutsk
1.00

Gorodeya creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 110 away

creates per match

Gorodeya
1.09
FC Slutsk
0.85

allows per match

Gorodeya
1.15
FC Slutsk
1.61

finishing

Gorodeya+0.00on par
FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorodeya ↓

FC Slutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gorodeya or draw
72%
Gorodeya or FC Slutsk
73%
Draw or FC Slutsk
55%

Winning margin

Gorodeya wins by 2+
21%
FC Slutsk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gorodeya 1+ goals
74%
Gorodeya 2+ goals
39%
Gorodeya 3+ goals
15%
FC Slutsk 1+ goals
63%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
26%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gorodeya (draw refunded)
62%
FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorodeya at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.61 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorodeya attack 1.09 + FC Slutsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Slutsk attack 0.85 + Gorodeya defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gorodeya scores more
45%
level
27%
FC Slutsk scores more
28%

Gorodeya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gorodeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
S. Arkhipov
49'
Dmitri Ignatenko
49'
Vitali Trubilo
51'
S. Arkhipov
56'
A. Koroev← M. Buraev
56'
K. Pavlyuchek
79'
Y. Volovik← S. Pushnyakov
86'
M. Shibun← D. Bayduk
90+2'
A. Zakharov← I. Dovgyallo

Possession

44%Gorodeya

Shots

12Gorodeya

Statistics

GorodeyaFC
Overview
44%Possession56%
12Total Shots8
2Corners4
20Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots8
6On Target3
6Off Target5
Passing
44%Possession56%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
20Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Gorodeya vs FC Slutsk

Gorodeya beat FC Slutsk 3-0 in Premier League on June 12, 2020.

Goals: S. Arkhipov (34', 51'), K. Pavlyuchek (56').

FC Slutsk controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradzeya in Haradzeya.