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Tucson vs Lansing Ignite — USL League One 2019

Tucson
Tucson
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Lansing Ignite
Lansing Ignite
9/7/2019USL League OneUSL League One · Round 12Kino North Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tucson38%
×Draw25%
Lansing Ignite37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tucson
1.43
Lansing Ignite
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 14 away

creates per match

Tucson
1.35
Lansing Ignite
1.50

allows per match

Tucson
1.33
Lansing Ignite
1.50

finishing

Tucson+0.00on par
Lansing Ignite+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tucson ↓

Lansing Ignite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tucson or draw
63%
Tucson or Lansing Ignite
75%
Draw or Lansing Ignite
62%

Winning margin

Tucson wins by 2+
18%
Lansing Ignite wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tucson 1+ goals
76%
Tucson 2+ goals
42%
Tucson 3+ goals
17%
Lansing Ignite 1+ goals
76%
Lansing Ignite 2+ goals
41%
Lansing Ignite 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tucson (draw refunded)
50%
Lansing Ignite (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tucson at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

Lansing Ignite away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tucson attack 1.35 + Lansing Ignite defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lansing Ignite attack 1.50 + Tucson defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tucson scores more
38%
level
25%
Lansing Ignite scores more
37%

Tucson at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tucson will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tucson vs Lansing Ignite

Lansing Ignite beat Tucson 5-0 in USL League One on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Kino North Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.