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Gornji Rahić vs Vis Kosova — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
10/8/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gornji Rahić55%
×Draw23%
Vis Kosova22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornji Rahić
1.77
Vis Kosova
1.03

Gornji Rahić creates 72% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 61 away

creates per match

Gornji Rahić
1.83
Vis Kosova
1.21

allows per match

Gornji Rahić
0.86
Vis Kosova
1.70

finishing

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par
Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornji Rahić ↓

Vis Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gornji Rahić or draw
78%
Gornji Rahić or Vis Kosova
77%
Draw or Vis Kosova
45%

Winning margin

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
31%
Vis Kosova wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
83%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
53%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
26%
Vis Kosova 1+ goals
64%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
28%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
71%
Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornji Rahić at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornji Rahić attack 1.83 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + Gornji Rahić defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gornji Rahić scores more
55%
level
23%
Vis Kosova scores more
22%

Gornji Rahić at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gornji Rahić vs Vis Kosova

Gornji Rahić beat Vis Kosova 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić in Gornji Rahić.