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Gornji Rahić vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
9/1/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gornji Rahić53%
×Draw24%
TOŠK Tešanj23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornji Rahić
1.69
TOŠK Tešanj
1.03

Gornji Rahić creates 64% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 95 away

creates per match

Gornji Rahić
1.83
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Gornji Rahić
0.86
TOŠK Tešanj
1.54

finishing

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornji Rahić ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gornji Rahić or draw
77%
Gornji Rahić or TOŠK Tešanj
76%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
47%

Winning margin

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
29%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
82%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
50%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
24%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
64%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
28%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
70%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornji Rahić at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornji Rahić attack 1.83 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.69

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Gornji Rahić defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gornji Rahić scores more
53%
level
24%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
23%

Gornji Rahić at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Gornji Rahić 2–2 TOŠK Tešanj

Gornji Rahić and TOŠK Tešanj drew 2-2 in 1st League - FBiH on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić in Gornji Rahić.