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Gornji Rahić vs Sloboda Tuzla — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
5/12/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 25Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Gornji Rahić47%
×Draw27%
Sloboda Tuzla26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornji Rahić
1.40
Sloboda Tuzla
0.97

Gornji Rahić creates 44% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Gornji Rahić
1.83
Sloboda Tuzla
1.07

allows per match

Gornji Rahić
0.86
Sloboda Tuzla
0.96

finishing

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par
Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornji Rahić ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gornji Rahić or draw
74%
Gornji Rahić or Sloboda Tuzla
73%
Draw or Sloboda Tuzla
53%

Winning margin

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
23%
Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
75%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
41%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
17%
Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
62%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
25%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
64%
Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornji Rahić at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornji Rahić attack 1.83 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + Gornji Rahić defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gornji Rahić scores more
47%
level
27%
Sloboda Tuzla scores more
26%

Gornji Rahić at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gornji Rahić vs Sloboda Tuzla

Gornji Rahić and Sloboda Tuzla drew 2-2 in 1st League - FBiH on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić in Gornji Rahić.