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Gornji Rahić vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Goražde
Goražde
11/10/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gornji Rahić54%
×Draw25%
Goražde21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornji Rahić
1.58
Goražde
0.89

Gornji Rahić creates 78% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 82 away

creates per match

Gornji Rahić
1.83
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

Gornji Rahić
0.86
Goražde
1.34

finishing

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornji Rahić ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gornji Rahić or draw
79%
Gornji Rahić or Goražde
75%
Draw or Goražde
46%

Winning margin

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
28%
Goražde wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
79%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
47%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
21%
Goražde 1+ goals
59%
Goražde 2+ goals
22%
Goražde 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
72%
Goražde (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornji Rahić at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornji Rahić attack 1.83 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

Goražde attack 0.91 + Gornji Rahić defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gornji Rahić scores more
54%
level
25%
Goražde scores more
21%

Gornji Rahić at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Gornji Rahić 1–1 Goražde

Gornji Rahić and Goražde drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić in Gornji Rahić.