Gornik Zabrze 3–2 Radomiak Radom: Result & Stats

Gornik Zabrze

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Radomiak Radom

Ł. Podolski 71'

Josema 39', 4'

J. Grzesik 45+2'

Rafael Barbosa 21' (pen)

2/15/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 21Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Gornik Zabrze59%

×Draw22%

Radomiak Radom19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gornik ZabrzeExpected goals in this matchRadomiak Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.98

Gornik Zabrze

1.91

Radomiak Radom

0.98

Gornik Zabrze creates 95% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

1.56

creates per match

0.85

1.11

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze

1.56

Radomiak Radom

0.85

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze

1.11

Radomiak Radom

2.26

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Gornik Zabrze+0.01on par

Radomiak Radom+0.07on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

Radomiak Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw

81%

Gornik Zabrze or Radomiak Radom

78%

Draw or Radomiak Radom

41%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+

35%

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals

85%

Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals

57%

Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals

30%

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

62%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

26%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)

76%

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 21 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.26 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.56 + Radomiak Radom defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.91

Radomiak Radom attack 0.85 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more

59%

level

22%

Radomiak Radom scores more

19%

Gornik Zabrze at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Josema

Gornik Zabrze · D

8.5

Match Events

4'

Josema

20'

Abdoul TapsobaPenalty confirmed

21'

Rafael BarbosaPenalty

33'

Rafał Wolski

38'

Lukas Podolski

39'

Josema

41'

JosemaGoal confirmed

45+2'

J. Grzesik↳ Z. Ouattara

59'

Maciej Kikolski

61'

R. Alves← Bruno Jordão

62'

M. Kaput← R. Wolski

67'

M. Kmeť← D. Szala

67'

L. Ambros← T. Ismaheel

71'

Ł. Podolski↳ M. Kmeť

76'

Capita← C. Donis

79'

F. Prebsl← D. Sarapata

79'

S. Bakış← Ł. Podolski

83'

Perotti← Rafael Barbosa

84'

Guilherme Zimovski← J. Grzesik

90+2'

Josema

90+1'

A. Buksa← L. Zahović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GornikRadomiak

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots13

3Corners10

9Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots13

7On Target4

1Off Target4

6Blocked5

8Inside Box10

6Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

536Total Passes321

480Accurate Passes259

90%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3