Gornik Zabrze 5–2 IMT Novi Beograd: Result & Stats

Gornik Zabrze

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

IMT Novi Beograd

T. Ismaheel 90'

N. Wojtuszek 84'

Josema 77'

L. Podolski 66'

D. Sarapata 28'

M. Jovic 70'

U. Bonnet 58'

1/18/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gornik Zabrze62%

×Draw19%

IMT Novi Beograd19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gornik ZabrzeExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.29

Gornik Zabrze

2.42

IMT Novi Beograd

1.29

Gornik Zabrze creates 88% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.55

creates per match

0.86

1.73

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze

2.55

IMT Novi Beograd

0.86

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze

1.73

IMT Novi Beograd

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gornik Zabrze+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw

81%

Gornik Zabrze or IMT Novi Beograd

81%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

38%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+

40%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals

91%

Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals

69%

Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals

43%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

72%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

37%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)

76%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 2.55 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.42

IMT Novi Beograd attack 0.86 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more

62%

level

19%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

19%

Gornik Zabrze at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

58'

66'

70'

77'

84'

90'

Gornik

IMT

Manager: Michal Gašparík

Manager: Bojan Krulj