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Górnik Zabrze U19 vs Korona Kielce U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Górnik Zabrze U19
Górnik Zabrze U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Korona Kielce U19
Korona Kielce U19
8/12/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Górnik Zabrze U1954%
×Draw20%
Korona Kielce U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze U19
2.31
Korona Kielce U19
1.58

Górnik Zabrze U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 22 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze U19
2.13
Korona Kielce U19
1.86

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze U19
1.29
Korona Kielce U19
2.50

finishing

Górnik Zabrze U19+0.00on par
Korona Kielce U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze U19 ↓

Korona Kielce U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze U19 or draw
74%
Górnik Zabrze U19 or Korona Kielce U19
80%
Draw or Korona Kielce U19
46%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze U19 wins by 2+
33%
Korona Kielce U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze U19 1+ goals
90%
Górnik Zabrze U19 2+ goals
67%
Górnik Zabrze U19 3+ goals
40%
Korona Kielce U19 1+ goals
79%
Korona Kielce U19 2+ goals
47%
Korona Kielce U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Korona Kielce U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Korona Kielce U19 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze U19 attack 2.13 + Korona Kielce U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.31

Korona Kielce U19 attack 1.86 + Górnik Zabrze U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Górnik Zabrze U19 scores more
54%
level
20%
Korona Kielce U19 scores more
26%

Górnik Zabrze U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Górnik Zabrze U19 3–1 Korona Kielce U19

Górnik Zabrze U19 beat Korona Kielce U19 3-1 in Central Youth League on August 12, 2023.