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Górnik Zabrze U19 vs Jagiellonia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Górnik Zabrze U19
Górnik Zabrze U19
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Jagiellonia U19
Jagiellonia U19
3/2/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Górnik Zabrze U1951%
×Draw21%
Jagiellonia U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze U19
2.06
Jagiellonia U19
1.46

Górnik Zabrze U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze U19
2.13
Jagiellonia U19
1.64

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze U19
1.29
Jagiellonia U19
2.00

finishing

Górnik Zabrze U19+0.00on par
Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze U19 ↓

Jagiellonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze U19 or draw
73%
Górnik Zabrze U19 or Jagiellonia U19
79%
Draw or Jagiellonia U19
49%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze U19 wins by 2+
30%
Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze U19 1+ goals
87%
Górnik Zabrze U19 2+ goals
61%
Górnik Zabrze U19 3+ goals
34%
Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals
77%
Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals
43%
Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Jagiellonia U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze U19 attack 2.13 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Jagiellonia U19 attack 1.64 + Górnik Zabrze U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Górnik Zabrze U19 scores more
51%
level
21%
Jagiellonia U19 scores more
27%

Górnik Zabrze U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Górnik Zabrze U19 2–4 Jagiellonia U19

Jagiellonia U19 beat Górnik Zabrze U19 4-2 in Central Youth League on March 2, 2024.