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Górnik Zabrze U18 vs Wisła Kraków U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Górnik Zabrze U18
Górnik Zabrze U18
FT
0 – 1
Wisła Kraków U18
Wisła Kraków U18
9/10/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Górnik Zabrze U1840%
×Draw23%
Wisła Kraków U1838%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze U18
1.76
Wisła Kraków U18
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze U18
1.84
Wisła Kraków U18
2.24

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze U18
1.16
Wisła Kraków U18
1.68

finishing

Górnik Zabrze U18+0.00on par
Wisła Kraków U18+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze U18 ↓

Wisła Kraków U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze U18 or draw
62%
Górnik Zabrze U18 or Wisła Kraków U18
77%
Draw or Wisła Kraków U18
60%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
21%
Wisła Kraków U18 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze U18 1+ goals
83%
Górnik Zabrze U18 2+ goals
52%
Górnik Zabrze U18 3+ goals
26%
Wisła Kraków U18 1+ goals
82%
Wisła Kraków U18 2+ goals
51%
Wisła Kraków U18 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
52%
Wisła Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze U18 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Wisła Kraków U18 away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze U18 attack 1.84 + Wisła Kraków U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.76

Wisła Kraków U18 attack 2.24 + Górnik Zabrze U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Górnik Zabrze U18 scores more
40%
level
23%
Wisła Kraków U18 scores more
38%

Górnik Zabrze U18 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Górnik Zabrze U18 0–1 Wisła Kraków U18

Wisła Kraków U18 beat Górnik Zabrze U18 1-0 in Central Youth League on September 10, 2022.