Górnik Zabrze II 1–0 Warta Gorzów: Result & Stats

Górnik Zabrze II

FT

1 – 0

Warta Gorzów

3/24/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion GKS Walka Makoszowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II47%

×Draw24%

Warta Gorzów29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik Zabrze IIExpected goals in this matchWarta Gorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.27

Górnik Zabrze II

1.69

Warta Gorzów

1.27

Górnik Zabrze II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

1.79

creates per match

1.28

1.25

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.79

Warta Gorzów

1.28

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.25

Warta Gorzów

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Warta Gorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw

71%

Górnik Zabrze II or Warta Gorzów

76%

Draw or Warta Gorzów

53%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+

25%

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals

82%

Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals

50%

Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals

24%

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals

72%

Warta Gorzów 2+ goals

36%

Warta Gorzów 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)

62%

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more

47%

level

24%

Warta Gorzów scores more

29%

Górnik Zabrze II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff