Górnik Zabrze II 2–0 Ślęza Wrocław: Result & Stats

Górnik Zabrze II

FT

2 – 0

Ślęza Wrocław

9/14/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II43%

×Draw23%

Ślęza Wrocław34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik Zabrze IIExpected goals in this matchŚlęza Wrocław

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.54

Górnik Zabrze II

1.77

Ślęza Wrocław

1.54

Górnik Zabrze II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 103 away

1.79

creates per match

1.83

1.25

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.79

Ślęza Wrocław

1.83

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.25

Ślęza Wrocław

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw

66%

Górnik Zabrze II or Ślęza Wrocław

77%

Draw or Ślęza Wrocław

57%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+

23%

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals

83%

Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals

53%

Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals

26%

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

79%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

45%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)

56%

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more

43%

level

23%

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

34%

Górnik Zabrze II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff