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Górnik Zabrze II vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
FT
0 – 2
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
11/19/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II46%
×Draw23%
Raków Częstochowa II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze II
1.75
Raków Częstochowa II
1.39

Górnik Zabrze II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.25
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw
69%
Górnik Zabrze II or Raków Częstochowa II
77%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
54%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
25%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
83%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
52%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
25%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
75%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
40%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
60%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more
46%
level
23%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
31%

Górnik Zabrze II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Zabrze II vs Raków Częstochowa II

Raków Częstochowa II beat Górnik Zabrze II 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zabrze.