Górnik Zabrze II 3–2 Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Górnik Zabrze II

FT

3 – 2

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

11/21/2020

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II63%

×Draw19%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik Zabrze IIExpected goals in this matchPolonia-Stal Świdnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.27

Górnik Zabrze II

2.45

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.27

Górnik Zabrze II creates 93% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 18 away

1.79

creates per match

1.28

1.25

allows per match

3.11

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.79

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.28

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.25

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

3.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw

81%

Górnik Zabrze II or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

81%

Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

37%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+

41%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals

91%

Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals

70%

Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals

44%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals

72%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals

36%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)

77%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.45

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more

63%

level

19%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more

19%

Górnik Zabrze II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff