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Górnik Zabrze II vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
FT
2 – 1
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
10/3/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II51%
×Draw22%
Piast Żmigród27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze II
1.95
Piast Żmigród
1.37

Górnik Zabrze II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.25
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw
73%
Górnik Zabrze II or Piast Żmigród
78%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
49%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
29%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
86%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
58%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
31%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
75%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
40%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
65%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.95

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more
51%
level
22%
Piast Żmigród scores more
27%

Górnik Zabrze II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Zabrze II vs Piast Żmigród

Górnik Zabrze II beat Piast Żmigród 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zabrze.