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Górnik Zabrze II vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
FT
5 – 0
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
11/14/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II61%
×Draw20%
Gać Oława19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze II
2.18
Gać Oława
1.13

Górnik Zabrze II creates 93% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.25
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw
81%
Górnik Zabrze II or Gać Oława
80%
Draw or Gać Oława
39%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
38%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
89%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
64%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
37%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
68%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
31%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
76%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.18

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more
61%
level
20%
Gać Oława scores more
19%

Górnik Zabrze II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Zabrze II vs Gać Oława

Górnik Zabrze II beat Gać Oława 5-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zabrze.