Górnik Polkowice 0–1 Tychy 71: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tychy 71

Ł. Grzeszczyk 43'

9/24/2021

I Liga · Round 10Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice36%

×Draw28%

Tychy 7136%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchTychy 71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.17

Górnik Polkowice

1.18

Tychy 71

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 133 away

0.88

creates per match

1.22

1.12

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

Tychy 71

1.22

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

Tychy 71

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Tychy 71 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

64%

Górnik Polkowice or Tychy 71

72%

Draw or Tychy 71

64%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

15%

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

69%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

33%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

12%

Tychy 71 1+ goals

69%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

33%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

50%

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Tychy 71 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

36%

level

28%

Tychy 71 scores more

36%

Górnik Polkowice at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

A. Purzycki

43'

Ł. Grzeszczyk

46'

M. Bancewicz← E. Sobków

53'

M. Bancewicz

66'

K. Wacławczyk← A. Purzycki

68'

B. Biel

72'

K. Kargulewicz← Ł. Grzeszczyk

72'

W. Żytek← J. Piątek

77'

M. Pałaszewski← M. Opałacz

77'

J. Sypek← R. Karmelita

80'

S. Steblecki← O. Paprzycki

85'

85'

86'

88'

Górnik

Tychy

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Barylski

46'▲M. Bancewicz←▼E. Sobków

66'▲K. Wacławczyk←▼A. Purzycki

77'▲M. Pałaszewski←▼M. Opałacz

77'▲J. Sypek←▼R. Karmelita

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

BancewiczWacławczykPałaszewskiSypek

Manager: A. Derbin

72'▲K. Kargulewicz←▼Ł. Grzeszczyk

72'▲W. Żytek←▼J. Piątek

80'▲S. Steblecki←▼O. Paprzycki

85'▲M. Kozina←▼K. Janiak

85'▲G. Jaroch←▼T. Malec

Tychy 71 substitutes

KargulewiczŻytekStebleckiKozinaJaroch

I Liga: Górnik Polkowice 0–1 Tychy 71

Tychy 71 beat Górnik Polkowice 1-0 in I Liga on September 24, 2021.

Goals: Ł. Grzeszczyk (43').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.

Górnik Polkowice vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Górnik Polkowice 0–1 Tychy 71