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Górnik Polkowice vs Sokół Ostróda — II Liga - East 2019

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
9/5/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 2Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Górnik Polkowice59%
×Draw21%
Sokół Ostróda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
2.05
Sokół Ostróda
1.10

Górnik Polkowice creates 86% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 35 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
2.00
Sokół Ostróda
1.06

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.15
Sokół Ostróda
2.11

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
80%
Górnik Polkowice or Sokół Ostróda
79%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
41%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
36%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
87%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
61%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
33%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
67%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
30%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
75%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
59%
level
21%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
20%

Górnik Polkowice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Sokół Ostróda

Górnik Polkowice beat Sokół Ostróda 3-0 in II Liga - East on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.