Górnik Polkowice 4–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Górnik Polkowice

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

A. Piech 90+2', 14' (pen)

S. Kiebzak 47'

J. Kuźma 45'

O. Yatsenko 4' (pen)

4/29/2023

II Liga - East · Round 29Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice57%

×Draw22%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.07

Górnik Polkowice

1.94

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.07

Górnik Polkowice creates 81% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.15

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

2.00

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.00

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.15

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

79%

Górnik Polkowice or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

78%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

43%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

34%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

86%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

58%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

30%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

66%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

29%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

74%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.00 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

57%

level

22%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

21%

Górnik Polkowice at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

O. YatsenkoPenalty

7'

D. Burka

14'

A. PiechPenalty

18'

28'

38'

45'

47'

49'

51'

62'

62'

62'

K. Adamek← O. Yatsenko

69'

F. Krempa← W. Bieniarz

74'

F. Baranowski← M. Idzik

76'

F. Jania← M. Ziółkowski

79'

F. Jania

82'

M. Czarny← K. Krasa

82'

K. Poczwardowski← J. Kuźma

83'

P. Cichocki

90+3'

O. Leopold← S. Kiebzak

90+2'

A. Piech

Górnik

Siarka

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kiebzak

Bilokin

▼

Krasa

⚽

▼

Kuźma

⚽2

Piech

▼

Idzik

Manager: T. Grzegorczyk

74'▲F. Baranowski←▼M. Idzik

82'▲M. Czarny←▼K. Krasa

82'▲K. Poczwardowski←▼J. Kuźma

90+3'▲O. Leopold←▼S. Kiebzak

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

BaranowskiCzarnyPoczwardowskiLeopold

Manager: Ł. Becella

62'▲Iván Agudo←▼M. Tyl

62'▲K. Zawiślak←▼P. Mróz

62'▲K. Adamek←▼O. Yatsenko

69'▲F. Krempa←▼W. Bieniarz

76'▲F. Jania←▼M. Ziółkowski

Siarka Tarnobrzeg substitutes

AgudoZawiślakAdamekKrempaJania

II Liga - East: Górnik Polkowice 4–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Górnik Polkowice beat Siarka Tarnobrzeg 4-1 in II Liga - East on April 29, 2023.

Goals: O. Yatsenko (4' pen), A. Piech (14' pen, 90+2'), J. Kuźma (45'), S. Kiebzak (47').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.

Górnik Polkowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Górnik Polkowice 4–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg