Górnik Polkowice 0–1 Puszcza Niepołomice

Górnik Polkowice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Puszcza Niepołomice

E. Čikoš 90+3'

10/20/2021

I Liga · Round 12Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice35%

×Draw28%

Puszcza Niepołomice37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.16

Górnik Polkowice

1.13

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

0.88

creates per match

1.19

1.12

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.19

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

63%

Górnik Polkowice or Puszcza Niepołomice

72%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

65%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

14%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

68%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

31%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

11%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

69%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

32%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

49%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.19 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

35%

level

28%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

37%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

M. Opalacz

57'

K. Stepien

61'

S. Górski← G. Aftyka

61'

S. Kobusiński← B. Włodarczyk

66'

A. Purzycki← B. Żołądź

66'

K. Wacławczyk← M. Bancewicz

70'

W. Hajda← R. Boguski

71'

E. Thiakane

77'

J. Sypek← R. Karmelita

81'

M. Piątkowski← M. Szuszkiewicz

82'

D. Radziemski← M. Opałacz

84'

M. Pięczek← P. Mroziński

90+3'

E. Čikoš

Górnik

Puszcza

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Barylski

66'▲A. Purzycki←▼B. Żołądź

66'▲K. Wacławczyk←▼M. Bancewicz

77'▲J. Sypek←▼R. Karmelita

81'▲M. Piątkowski←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

82'▲D. Radziemski←▼M. Opałacz

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

PurzyckiWacławczykSypekPiątkowskiRadziemski

Manager: T. Tułacz

61'▲S. Górski←▼G. Aftyka

61'▲S. Kobusiński←▼B. Włodarczyk

70'▲W. Hajda←▼R. Boguski

84'▲M. Pięczek←▼P. Mroziński

Puszcza Niepołomice substitutes

GórskiKobusińskiHajdaPięczek

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Puszcza Niepołomice beat Górnik Polkowice 1-0 in I Liga on October 20, 2021.

Goals: E. Čikoš (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.

Górnik Polkowice vs Puszcza Niepołomice — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Puszcza Niepołomice