Górnik Polkowice 1–1 Podbeskidzie: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Podbeskidzie

M. Szuszkiewicz 72'

K. Biliński 45+4'

8/1/2021

I Liga · Round 1Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice37%

×Draw27%

Podbeskidzie36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchPodbeskidzie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.21

Górnik Polkowice

1.22

Podbeskidzie

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

0.88

creates per match

1.30

1.12

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

Podbeskidzie

1.30

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

Podbeskidzie

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Podbeskidzie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

64%

Górnik Polkowice or Podbeskidzie

73%

Draw or Podbeskidzie

63%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

16%

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

70%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

34%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

12%

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

70%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

34%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

50%

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Podbeskidzie attack 1.30 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

37%

level

27%

Podbeskidzie scores more

36%

Górnik Polkowice at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

M. Palaszewski

38'

D. Radziemski← K. Fryzowicz

45+4'

K. Biliński

54'

D. Krakowski

60'

K. Szmyt← D. Krakowski

65'

Joan Román← M. Scalet

68'

J. Bieronski

72'

M. Szuszkiewicz

80'

M. Roginić← D. Frelek

81'

A. Purzycki← M. Szuszkiewicz

81'

M. Bancewicz← E. Sobków

81'

G. Merebashvili← D. Polkowski

Górnik

Podbeskidzie

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Szuszkiew

▼

Sobków

Manager: P. Barylski

38'▲D. Radziemski←▼K. Fryzowicz

60'▲K. Szmyt←▼D. Krakowski

81'▲A. Purzycki←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

81'▲M. Bancewicz←▼E. Sobków

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

RadziemskiSzmytPurzyckiBancewicz

Manager: P. Jawny

65'▲Joan Román←▼M. Scalet

80'▲M. Roginić←▼D. Frelek

81'▲G. Merebashvili←▼D. Polkowski

Podbeskidzie substitutes

RománRoginićMerebashvili

I Liga: Górnik Polkowice 1–1 Podbeskidzie

Górnik Polkowice and Podbeskidzie drew 1-1 in I Liga on August 1, 2021.

Goals: K. Biliński (45+4'), M. Szuszkiewicz (72').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.

Górnik Polkowice vs Podbeskidzie — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Górnik Polkowice 1–1 Podbeskidzie